Fear of Losing Power: Is It Beginning to Haunt Modi and the BJP?
Fear of Losing Power: Is It Beginning
to Haunt Modi and the BJP?
The last few months have been brutal for the BJP. The Ram
Temple theft controversy, student suicides following paper leaks, the formation
of the CJP and its protests, allegations surrounding the SIR and voter theft the
list seems to go on. At the same time, the rise of Rahul Gandhi has changed the
political atmosphere. The man the BJP spent years mocking as “Pappu” is now
relentlessly going after Modi and Shah on corruption, unemployment, election
manipulation, and the functioning of India's institutions.
To me, Modi and Shah increasingly look nervous. Their absence
from Parliament during almost the entire recent session was striking. Modi
appeared only at the end, participated in the Vande Mataram event, and
left. Both seem increasingly reluctant to place themselves in situations where
they can be confronted directly. Modi continues to communicate through speeches
and carefully produced videos, while foreign stages provide the additional
convenience of delivering triumphant messages without facing an independent
Indian press.
The political temperature becomes even more interesting when
opposition politicians openly discuss what could happen if power changes hands.
An outspoken AAP leader recently challenged the government in the Rajya Sabha,
saying in effect: give us the ED and CBI for one day and we will put half the
BJP leadership in jail on real charges. That may sound like political theatre,
but it sounds different to politicians who understand exactly how powerful
government agencies can become when turned against you.
The Modi government has watched opposition leaders being
investigated, arrested and jailed by agencies such as the ED and CBI. What
happens if someday someone else controls those institutions? Losing power can
then mean much more than losing an election. It can mean facing investigations
into allegations that were previously dismissed or avoided. Fear of losing
power can become a very powerful fear.
This is especially important with Uttar Pradesh going to the
polls in 2027. The BJP desperately needs positive stories showing Indians that
Modi's leadership is still working. And suddenly, from foreign soil, came
exactly such a story: India's economy had grown by 7.8%.
It sounded wonderful. There was only one problem: economists
began questioning the numbers.
Former Finance Secretary Subhash Chandra Garg, who served in
the Modi government, is among those challenging the calculation. Under the
previous GDP series, India's nominal GDP for the corresponding quarter last
year was approximately ₹86.05 lakh crore, while this year's figure is around ₹88.26
lakh crore. Basic mathematics puts that increase at roughly 2.6%.
The government says this comparison is incorrect because it
has changed the GDP base year and methodology. Under the new series, last
year's comparable GDP has been revised downward, producing nominal growth of
about 10.3% and real growth of 7.8%. There may be legitimate technical reasons
for those revisions, but when changing the methodology produces such a
politically attractive headline, people have every right to examine the
calculations carefully.
For someone trained to the level of a Ph.D. in mathematics,
moving from approximately ₹86 trillion to ₹88 trillion naturally raises
questions about a headline of 7.8%. Numbers can be adjusted for inflation, base
years and methodology, but numbers should ultimately explain reality not be
twisted until they produce the political story a government needs.
There is another problem. If India is experiencing
spectacular economic growth, where is it being felt? Where is the corresponding
improvement in employment and family incomes? Why are young Indians protesting
for quality education and jobs? Why are families still struggling with the cost
of living? A booming GDP number means little to ordinary Indians if the
economic miracle never reaches their homes.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, who is herself trained
in economics, should welcome these questions. Put the old and new GDP series on
the same table, bring independent economists together and explain exactly what
changed. If 7.8% is correct, scrutiny should strengthen the government's
argument, not threaten it.
But that requires something Modi has avoided throughout his
years as prime minister: facing an independent press and answering questions he
does not get to choose in advance.
And that brings us back to fear. A government confident about
elections should welcome electoral transparency. A government confident about
its integrity should not fear independent investigations. A prime minister
confident about his economic record should have no difficulty answering
questions about it.
India has enormous potential and needs investment in
education, science, research, technology and jobs. It needs economic growth
that reaches ordinary families, not merely another magnificent headline. Most
importantly, it needs leaders who understand that democracy does not mean
simply speaking to the people; it also means allowing the people to question
those who govern them.
Something in Indian politics appears to be changing. The
opposition is louder, Rahul Gandhi is stronger, young Indians are questioning
the government, and allegations that once disappeared beneath Modi's political
dominance are becoming harder to bury.
Perhaps that explains the desperate need for positive
stories. Because once the fear of losing power enters a politician's mind, staying
in power can become more important than almost anything else.
And if 7.8% is really 7.8%, the truth should not need a teleprompter or a foreign stage from which to announce it.
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