The Numbers That Make the BJP Nervous
The
Numbers That Make the BJP Nervous
For years, the BJP has
sold Narendra Modi as the man who transformed India's economy. But slogans are
easy; numbers are stubborn. When Atal Bihari Vajpayee left office in 2004,
India's economy was roughly $0.7 trillion. When Dr. Manmohan Singh left office
in 2014, it was about $2.07 trillion, nearly three times what he had inherited.
After more than eleven years under Modi, India's economy reached roughly $4
trillion, not even twice what Modi inherited. India certainly grew under Modi,
but where exactly is the economic miracle?
The debt numbers make the
story even more uncomfortable. In 2014, Central Government debt and liabilities
were roughly ₹55 lakh crore. Government estimates now put them above ₹214 lakh
crore by March 2027. The BJP loves talking about the size of India's GDP.
Somehow, the size of the government's debt does not make it onto the campaign
posters.
I have friends who
believe the BJP must be better for the economy, just as many Americans
automatically assume Republicans are better for the U.S. economy. Political
branding can be remarkably resistant to arithmetic. A Modi-supporting friend
once told me he supported Modi because he wanted India to become a $5 trillion
economy. But that raises the question the BJP should be asked: with the
economic momentum Modi inherited in 2014, why isn't India already well beyond
$5 trillion?
We cannot know precisely
what India's economy would have been under another government. Perhaps it could
have approached $6 trillion; perhaps not. But we can judge priorities.
Economies grow from the ground up by investing in education, manufacturing, research,
small businesses and millions of productive jobs. Instead, the Modi years have
increasingly represented an economy where enormous wealth and influence are
concentrated among a small group of giant corporations. A nation of 1.4 billion
people cannot build broad prosperity around a handful of billionaires.
India's traditional
foreign-policy strength was also its independence. We maintained relationships
with Russia, Iran, America, Europe, Israel and the Arab world because India
looked after India's interests. Foreign policy should open markets for Indian
businesses, not become political theatre. A photograph with a powerful foreign
leader may produce a headline; it does not necessarily produce jobs for
Indians.
Perhaps the BJP's
greatest political skill has therefore been something other than economics: distraction.
When unemployment, debt, inequality or corruption become uncomfortable, change
the subject. Religion, Pakistan, nationalism, Muslims, Rahul Gandhi, protesters
there is always another enemy available. Keep citizens angry with one another
and perhaps fewer will ask why good jobs remain difficult to find, why small
businesses struggle, or why government debt has multiplied.
I have experienced this
climate of fear personally. I recently tried to publish my political poetry
book, “Man Ki Baat, Jhooth Ke Saath”, a satire largely based on
Modi's own speeches, slogans, and controversies already in the public domain.
After accepting my project and payment, the publisher decided not to proceed
with the political book. My impression was that fear of possible retaliation
was an important factor. That is how censorship becomes most effective: the
government does not have to ban your book if people become too frightened to
print it.
A strong government does
not need frightened publishers, frightened journalists or frightened citizens.
Criticizing Modi is not criticizing India, questioning the BJP is not
anti-national, and satire about a Prime Minister is not a crime. Police and
investigative agencies exist to enforce the law, not to protect politicians
from criticism. When governments eventually change, allegations of illegal
arrests, intimidation, and misuse of state power must be independently
investigated, and anyone who broke the law must be held accountable in court.
So, forget the speeches
for a moment and look at the arithmetic: $0.7 trillion in 2004 became $2.07
trillion in 2014. After more than eleven years of Modi, roughly $2.07 trillion
became about $4 trillion, while Central Government debt and liabilities went
from roughly ₹55 lakh crore toward more than ₹214 lakh crore. India grew,
certainly, but India was growing before Modi and will grow after him.
The Indian economy
belongs to the hundreds of millions of Indians who built it, not to one
politician. The real question is not whether India grew under Modi. The
question is how much India lost by spending twelve years concentrating economic
power at the top while political energy was consumed by religion, division,
distraction, and fear.
Perhaps that is why these
numbers make the BJP nervous. You can distract people from the numbers. You
cannot change them.
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